Race 1 - #7 Mustang Bay (9-5) Paco (#6) will take a lot of money in this one, which will help add a little value here. But his horse has been struggling to win at the $12.5 level while Mustang Bay drops way down the ladder. Second time Lasix and the unkindest cut add to the appeal.
Race 2 - #10 Katheeb (9-2) I like the #3 here also, but usually shy away from Saffie when his horses are trying grass for the first time. Second time is another story! This #10 is running for his lowest price ever and seems to do his best work at a mile distance. Ran very well in his first try for Crichton but tired late going 1 1/16. Should build off that today and hold the lead.
Race 3 - #1 Hello Jello (8-1) This race is a crap shoot. Speed on the rail in sprints has been pretty solid, so I'll take a stab with this colt. The #3 Juan Mo Time (10-1) has been working impressively and Sierra has good numbers on debut. I see no reason to back the favorite.
Race 4 - #1 In Other Words (15-1) This is obviously Paco's race to lose, but how do you put your money on an odds-on favorite that is 1 for 12 lifetime? I almost took Trejos on the #5, but I'm a sucker for American Pharoah fillies on the tapeta and the rail has been fast...
Race 5 - #6 Wampanoag Chief (6-1) Yes, it took me five races to land on Paco so I'm likely 0 for 4 at this point in the day. Won't get 6-1, but still might get a little value on a horse whose dam has already dropped a stakes winner from two starters.
Race 6 - #3 Guildenstern (5-2) The barn switch seems to agree with him. If you don't follow GP, you need to know "always look twice when Edwin has a solid mount in a tapeta route".
Race 7 - #5 Beyond Belief (6-1) Trainer has been on fire lately. Paco jumps off a very solid #1 to ride this one. Easily the softest field she's tackled to date. Lots to like.
Race 8 - #2 Hot Cargo (8-1) Wide open race, whoever gets the best trip wins in a blanket finish. Usually in situations like this it pays to back Saffie and his magic potion. This won has scored twice at the distance and his other runner has yet to win on grass. Thus the choice.
Race 9 - #1 Havildar (15-1) has some strong AW bloodlines but has yet to try the surface. I love this type of play - you never know what the surface change will do. His two previous races at GP also produced his two highest Beyers - definitely high enough to be competitive in this race.
Race 10 - #6 Beckett's Map (15-1) I can't find a single horse worth backing here. So, I may as well go with the first time starter. It's basically a blindfolded swing at the pinata.
Good luck today, Happy Easter.
Race 2 - #10 Katheeb (9-2) I like the #3 here also, but usually shy away from Saffie when his horses are trying grass for the first time. Second time is another story! This #10 is running for his lowest price ever and seems to do his best work at a mile distance. Ran very well in his first try for Crichton but tired late going 1 1/16. Should build off that today and hold the lead.
Race 3 - #1 Hello Jello (8-1) This race is a crap shoot. Speed on the rail in sprints has been pretty solid, so I'll take a stab with this colt. The #3 Juan Mo Time (10-1) has been working impressively and Sierra has good numbers on debut. I see no reason to back the favorite.
Race 4 - #1 In Other Words (15-1) This is obviously Paco's race to lose, but how do you put your money on an odds-on favorite that is 1 for 12 lifetime? I almost took Trejos on the #5, but I'm a sucker for American Pharoah fillies on the tapeta and the rail has been fast...
Race 5 - #6 Wampanoag Chief (6-1) Yes, it took me five races to land on Paco so I'm likely 0 for 4 at this point in the day. Won't get 6-1, but still might get a little value on a horse whose dam has already dropped a stakes winner from two starters.
Race 6 - #3 Guildenstern (5-2) The barn switch seems to agree with him. If you don't follow GP, you need to know "always look twice when Edwin has a solid mount in a tapeta route".
Race 7 - #5 Beyond Belief (6-1) Trainer has been on fire lately. Paco jumps off a very solid #1 to ride this one. Easily the softest field she's tackled to date. Lots to like.
Race 8 - #2 Hot Cargo (8-1) Wide open race, whoever gets the best trip wins in a blanket finish. Usually in situations like this it pays to back Saffie and his magic potion. This won has scored twice at the distance and his other runner has yet to win on grass. Thus the choice.
Race 9 - #1 Havildar (15-1) has some strong AW bloodlines but has yet to try the surface. I love this type of play - you never know what the surface change will do. His two previous races at GP also produced his two highest Beyers - definitely high enough to be competitive in this race.
Race 10 - #6 Beckett's Map (15-1) I can't find a single horse worth backing here. So, I may as well go with the first time starter. It's basically a blindfolded swing at the pinata.
Good luck today, Happy Easter.
